Analyst Warns OpenAI Could Run Out of Cash by Mid-2027

OpenAI — the artificial intelligence powerhouse behind ChatGPT — could face serious financial strain and run out of cash by mid-2027, according to a stark prediction from an analyst highlighted in a recent Tom’s Hardware report. The warning comes amid soaring spending on data centers, compute infrastructure, and research and development, even as the company has yet to turn a profit on its core AI business.

Sebastian Mallaby, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, writing in the New York Times, suggests that OpenAI’s “ambitions exceed its ability to fund them,” leading to a potential liquidity crisis within the next 18 months or so.

This prediction has reignited debate among tech analysts and investors about whether the AI leader’s current financial path is sustainable — or whether OpenAI will need massive new investment rounds, strategic partnerships, or a fundamental business model shift to survive long term.

The AI Cash Burn: What’s Driving the Deficit

OpenAI’s financial challenges stem from extraordinarily high costs tied to hardware and infrastructure required to train and run large language models. Analysts note that the company reportedly spent about $8 billion in 2025 alone, with projections suggesting total cash burn could reach $40 billion annually by 2028 if current trends continue.

Part of the issue is how OpenAI has locked in long-term infrastructure commitments. According to broader industry forecasts, the company and its partners could be responsible for hundreds of billions of dollars in compute and data-center costs over the next decade — estimates that dwarf typical tech infrastructure investments.

For example, HSBC research points to a projected $207 billion funding gap for OpenAI by 2030, even assuming ambitious revenue growth — and a cumulative $792 billion in data-center rental costs between 2025 and 2030 tied to its strategic build-out.

These figures highlight a stark financial dichotomy: OpenAI continues to burn capital rapidly to chase AI dominance — even while expected revenues lag far behind those expenses.

Record Funding Doesn’t Guarantee Longevity

It’s not that OpenAI has failed to raise money. The company has secured some of the largest private funding rounds in tech history, including a historic $40 billion funding round that vaulted its valuation into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

But critics of the mid-2027 cash-runway prediction argue that raising capital is one thing; spending it sustainably is another. If revenue generation doesn’t keep pace with growth in spending — particularly on cloud compute and hardware — then even huge funding rounds may not stretch far enough.

Supporters of OpenAI emphasize that its user base and adoption remain massive, with billions of users relying on ChatGPT and other AI services monthly. They also note that new monetization strategies — such as enterprise sales, premium subscriptions and commercialization of specialized agent tools — could eventually unlock stronger revenue streams.

Profitability Still Years Away

Part of what makes OpenAI’s financial outlook complicated is that profitability is not expected soon. Internal forecasts and leaked financial disclosure projections from related sources suggest that OpenAI may not turn a profit until 2030 or later, even as revenue expands.

This long path to profitability means the company must continue relying on external funding or partnerships — like its deal with Microsoft, which has committed Azure cloud credits worth tens of billions of dollars — just to cover the costs of ongoing operations and expansion.

In the meantime, OpenAI’s net losses have been substantial: according to some financial disclosures linked to its Microsoft reporting, the company posted multi-billion-dollar losses in recent quarters, underscoring the scale of its expenditure relative to its income.

Competitive Pressures Complicate the Picture

OpenAI is not alone in facing the cost pressures of generative AI. Its closest competitors — including Google, Anthropic and Meta — are also investing heavily in compute and data centers. But unlike some rivals, OpenAI does not have decades of profitable legacy businesses to subsidize AI losses, meaning its financial model is entirely reliant on raising new capital or fundamentally reinventing revenue generation.

If funding becomes harder to secure — or if valuations cool amid broader market downturns — the company may face tough decisions: cutting costs, selling parts of its business, entering deeper integration with Microsoft or even a future acquisition by a larger tech player.

What This Means for the AI Industry

If OpenAI were to approach a cash crunch by mid-2027, the ramifications would extend beyond one company. Many AI startups and smaller developers depend on OpenAI’s tools or ecosystem, meaning financial instability could slow innovation across the sector.

But others point out that even if one leading AI lab faces financial pressure, capital will likely continue to flow into the broader AI space — especially into areas where compute efficiency improves or new revenue models materialize.

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