Could Asteroid YR4 Strike Earth? The Latest Odds Revealed

Imagine a space rock the size of a football field hurtling toward Earth at 38,000 miles per hour. Sounds like the plot of a Hollywood disaster movie, right?

For a brief moment, this scenario seemed all too real when astronomers discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object that initially had a 3.1% chance of striking our planet in 2032.

But before you start building a bunker, there’s good news: the odds of impact have now dropped. Please continue reading to find out more on the matter!

What Are the Chances of YR4 to Hit Earth?

Discovered in December 2023, Asteroid 2024 YR4 quickly became the most-watched space rock in recent history. Measuring between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, it was large enough to cause significant local damage if it struck Earth. For a brief period, its probability of impact peaked at 3.1%, the highest ever recorded for an asteroid of its size. This spike in risk even triggered a global warning system for the first time in 12 years, raising eyebrows and headlines worldwide.

However, as astronomers gathered more data, the odds began to plummet. By February 2025, the probability of impact dropped to 1.5%, and within days, it fell further to just 0.28%—a 1-in-360 chance. According to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid is now classified as a Level 1 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning it poses no significant threat and requires no public concern. Phew!

How Do Astronomers Track and Predict Asteroid Collisions?

So, what caused this dramatic shift in predictions? It all comes down to the precision of astronomical observations. When an asteroid is first discovered, its trajectory is calculated based on limited data, leading to a wide range of possible paths. As more observations are made, scientists can refine these calculations, eliminating trajectories that would result in a collision. In the case of 2024 YR4, new data from telescopes in Chile and elsewhere confirmed that the asteroid will safely miss Earth in 2032.

What Could Have Happened? 

While the asteroid’s close call has been averted, it serves as a reminder of the importance of planetary defense. Asteroids like 2024 YR4 may not pose an existential threat, but they can still cause significant damage. For example, a similar-sized asteroid caused the Tunguska event in 1908, flattening over 800 square miles of Siberian forest. Had 2024 YR4 been on a collision course, it could have devastated a city or triggered a tsunami if it struck the ocean.

Thankfully, advancements in telescope technology and asteroid detection systems are making it easier to spot and track these celestial objects. As Paul Chodas, director of CNEOS, put it, “This is a success story for our planetary defense capabilities.” So, while 2024 YR4 will pass harmlessly by, its journey has underscored the need to remain vigilant—because in space, you never know what’s coming next.

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